Hurricanes Charley, Frances, and Ivan have left their mark on the Southeast, but an even bigger storm, Hurricane China, is moving across the U.S., creating huge opportunities for U.S. investors.
We all know from the weather map that storm systems are created when high and low pressure systems collide. The same is true in investing. Changes in tax rates, regulations, or other government policies can drive the return on one asset up while pushing the returns on similar assets down. The resulting collision between low and high returns creates prices swings as investors sell low-return investments to buy ones with higher returns. This is what drives changes in stock prices.
The re-awakening of China is the biggest economic storm system of our lifetimes. The opening of China has created an incredible growth machine, which has raised the return on Chinese assets far above returns in the U.S., Europe, and Japan. China is a category 5 hurricane, gobbling up the commodities and capital it needs to feed its ferocious growth. This increase in demand is the major force driving world commodity and product markets today. For example, China’s growth, not Iraq, is responsible for the run-up in oil prices; it is also the driver of the surges in steel, aluminum, and coal prices last year. It’s also generating huge increases in sales and profits for the companies selling the materials and capital goods China is buying to expand their economy. That spells opportunity for investors.
How can you take advantage of the opportunities created by Hurricane China? First, if you’re invested in big U.S. companies, you’re already invested in China. Many big companies, like GM, Ford, and Intel, have made direct investments in China and plan to invest billions more. Others, such as Lucent and Qualcomm, earn a significant fraction of their revenues and profits from Chinese customers. Still others, such as USX and Alcoa, are seeing sales and profits driven by rising commodity prices. If you own them, you are already exposed to the China economy.
If you want to make a bigger bet on China’s growth, you can invest in Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) targeted at countries and sectors that have a greater exposure to the Chinese economy. ETFs are pools of stock that are designed to replicate the performance of a stock market sector or a foreign stock market. You can buy and sell shares of the fund just like a stock without having to pick individual companies. There is currently no ETF focused squarely on the Chinese economy, but you can capture a portion of the China growth story by buying the ETFs for countries like Korea (EWY), Hong Kong (EWH), and Taiwan (EWT) that do significant business with China. Or, you can invest in (EPP), an ETF which attempts to replicate the performance of the collected stock markets of the Pacific except for Japan.
Individual U.S. sector ETFs are another way to play the China story. The U.S. telecommunications (IYZ) and technology (IYW) sectors have both made big bets on China’s growth. China has the world’s fastest growing personal computer, cell phone, and telecommunications equipment markets. And the performance of the energy (IYE), materials (IYM), and cyclical (IYC) sectors are strongly impacted by China’s growth impact on commodity prices.
But remember, it’s not Kansas out there. China is a volatile economy. Investing in China is very risky, suitable only for long-term investors, and should be limited to a small portion of your portfolio. The things we take for granted—law, private property, and accounting standards—won’t protect your investments there. Don’t buy shares in companies listed in Chinese markets, and don’t buy IPO’s of Chinese companies listing here in the U.S.
Keep an eye on Hurricane China. Even with the potential risks, it’s a great opportunity for careful, long-term investors. We’ll continue to track this powerful storm. See Storm Watch for a more detailed description of Weather Map Investing. |